One of my old highschool-mates decided, a year after graduating from college and trying ordinary development jobs, to go ahead and try to make it on his own. His goal? To build the computer game that would make him rich.

I wish Catalin all the luck in the world. I want the best for him, and I hope one can still get rich by making and selling PC games. Still, I can’t help but feel worried about this kind of attempt. It’s not the freelancing, make-it-on-your-own part that scares me, but the game development one.

With all the free games nowadays (online games, freeware or open-source ones), it seems to me that people would only want to pay for games that are:

• amazing (think latest 3D Graphics cards, shootemups, etc…)
• in short supply - on not-so-crowded gaming platforms(games on mobiles, handhelds, consoles…)
• extremely innovative (think Katamari Damacy, etc…)
• provide lots of socializing - MMORPG

… and, even then, a game must really stand out from the crowd to be able to make ends meet.

All of this came to me today when reading a post on the OK/Cancel blog promoting a game launched by the author’s little brother and his friends; on the game’s website they say something like

after months and months of polish and iteration, we’re proud to say Eets is ready for the big time!

So… months and months of work for a game that, while pretty interestng-looking… does not seem likely to become a huge hit: a platform with flashy 2D graphics.

They sell it with about 20$. I know I wouldn’t pay for a 2D PC arcade game. Or maybe I’d pay, but not 20$, a lot less, and only if there was something special about it(i.e. addictiveness).

So… let’s make some small maths.

Any commercial game needs a bit of work, of at least 4-5 months for the simple(2D ones) to 3-4 years for complex 3D games, varying greatly with the developper’s expertise.

The size of the team? 2 persons, minimum, for the simpler ones (one core programmer and one graphics designer/game designer) to teams of 20-40 for the more complex ones (hundreds of programmers+designers for the ultra hit games…).

To break even, a very simple commercial game would need to bring revenue in the range of

((NbPersons*AverageSalary)+(FixCosts))*(NbDevelopmentMonths +NbMonthsToSell)

which, for a small 2 person garage startup with no fix costs, an average wage of 2000$, 4 development months and no extra months for shipping, packaging etc… would get around 16000 $
Let me repeat: a simple game made by 2 persons with minimum expenses during around 4 months would have to sell for 20$ a piece in 800 copies.

3 persons? Extra expenses? A couple of months to wait until cash starts to come in? Try multiplying the costs with 3.

Still, it doesn’t seem too much: You only have to find about 2000 people willing to pay 20$ for a simple game.

I know I’m not one of them. What about you?
How much would YOU pay for a game?

PS. this simple line of thought applies for ANY commercial software. Multiply the average wage by the number of months for the complete project (including planning, testing, shipping, maintenance, etc…) by the number of people involved and add in the extra costs(rent, light, phone, internet, computers…). Divide by the product’s price and you get the amount of buyers needed just to break even. For software in the range of 20-30$ a piece this number gets quickly at over 2000 people. Do you have a shot or not?